January 8, 2007           

American-Turkish Council Seminar on Turkey and the EU: Partnership or Separation?

Sponsored by Turkish Airlines & CISCO Systems

In response to the EU Commission’s 2006 Turkey Progress and Strategy reports, the suspension of eight out of 35 negotiation chapters, and approval to open at this time but one chapter (the “Industrial Corporation” chapter) for negotiation, the American-Turkish Council hosted its second Seminar on Turkey and the EU.  Aptly entitled, “Turkey and the EU:  Partnership or Separation?”, the ATC Seminar, sponsored by CISCO Systems Turkey and Turkish Airlines, pointed to the broader polarity posed by the uncertainty of recent developments. The Seminar was attended by policy-analysts, business leaders, academics, and senior-level government officials representing the full gamut of perspectives on Turkey’s accession.

Clearly, the historic opening of Turkey-EU accession negotiations on October 3, 2005 marked the advent of an eventful period for Turkey. Turkey has successfully implemented extensive legal and economic reforms in its quest for full membership.  However, the path to accession has been fraught with obstacles, and some analysts had suggested that this turbulence portended a “train wreck.”  The Seminar tested the legitimacy of these concerns, and restored an element of clarity to the complex debate surrounding the accession talks.

Panel 1:  The Continuation of the EU Process

The first Panel addressed the continuation of the EU process, and provided a comprehensive diagnosis of its immediate trajectory.  Mr. Jonathan Davidson, Consultant on EU Affairs and former Senior Advisor to the Delegation of the EU to the United States, stated that Turkey’s EU accession will not occur before 2014, not least of all because the EU’s seven year longer-term budget (which covers the period from 2007 to 2013) provides financing for enlargement but does not include sufficient resources to accommodate a state as large as Turkey.  Thus, Mr. Davidson cited the EU’s capacity for further member state absorption as a main determinant for any future accession date.  However, Mr. Davidson believes that the EU must make a credible commitment to Turkey’s eventual success, because “…No country can be expected to go through so many changes without assurance of a prize at the end of the tunnel.” 

Dr. Ian Lesser, Senior Transatlantic Fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the U.S., remarked that the attention accorded to Turkey’s non-implementation of the Ankara Protocol provides the public with the faulty impression that Turkey’s EU accession hinges on a conditionality agenda.  Dr. Lesser believes that the Cyprus issue serves to mask the intensely political character of the debate, which has at least as much to do with European politics as with Turkish politics. 

Ms. Tulu Gumustekin, President of the CPS Corporate and Public Strategy Group, considers partial suspension of the negotiation process to be preferable to complete and indefinite suspension.  Ms. Gumustekin quipped that “The train can continue to go forward, albeit slowly.”  She believes that the EU is a continental organization to which Turkey naturally belongs.  Although she recognizes abiding concerns about Turkey’s size vis-à-vis the EU’s capacity for expansion, she too sees the EU’s structural and constitutional shortcomings as the primary impediment to Turkey’s successful absorption.

Panel 2:  U.S. and Turkey Perspectives on the Negotiations

The second Panel addressed the U.S.-Turkish perspectives on the negotiations.  The Honorable Egemen Bagis, Foreign Policy Advisor to the Prime Minister and a Member of Parliament (AK Party, Istanbul), stated that Turkey began its march toward the EU when it signed the Ankara Agreement in 1963, which created an Association Between The Republic of Turkey and the European Economic Community.  Although he characterized some of the EU’s policies as contradictory and confusing, he reaffirmed Turkey’s unwavering commitment to a successful accession, a commitment, he said, that is genuine for its own sake and without a “hidden agenda.”  Mr. Bagis accentuated his conviction that Turkey’s full EU membership will bring prosperity to Turkey’s future generations.  Mr. Bagis also noted that substantially increased foreign investment will follow a concrete assurance of Turkey’s eventual accession, thereby solving some of the fiscal concerns that have been articulated by the EU leadership. 

Mr. Matthew Bryza, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, stated that the U.S. remains resolutely supportive of Turkey’s EU membership.  Mr. Bryza said that repetitious talk of Turkey’s geostrategic significance diminishes its real value to the United States and the West; Turkey’s primary strategic importance, he affirmed, resides in its firmly secular and democratic character, which is entirely unique in the region.  He also emphasized the increasing importance of Turkey’s role as a source of European energy diversification.

The ATC Seminar provided a valuable analysis of the diverse potential outcomes of Turkey’s accession process.  Although the speakers often diverged in their views on specific aspects of Turkey’s candidacy, they were in agreement on the importance of Turkey’s successful accession and the obligations of Turkey and the EU to find ways that will keep the negotiation process moving forward. ATC is confident that Turkey will prevail in its goal, and is proud to support Turkey in its path to full EU membership. ATC would like to thank its corporate sponsors, CISCO Systems and Turkish Airlines, once again for their continued support.